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MANIFOLD
How many seats will the Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Election?
124
Ṁ14kṀ340k
Jan 4
0.1%
44
0.1%
45
0.1%
46
0.1%
47
0.1%
48
0.1%
49
0.1%
50
0.1%
51
0.1%
52
0.1%
53
0.2%
54
0.7%
55
96%
56
3%
Other

I will add new options if the odds credibly swing either much higher or much lower than the currently expected median. Feel free to ask clarifying questions. By default, this market will resolve on January 4th, 2027. If there is an edge case in which it is unclear how many Dems are in the new senate, I will delay resolution. Independents will count towards the party they caucus with. Independents who do not caucus with the Dems will not count for them, even if they usually vote with them.

US Politics
Politics
Elections
2026 US Congressional Elections
2026 Midterms
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bought Ṁ50 YES

Reminder this resolves on Jan 4 so don’t forget party switchers. @HillaryClinton

@Jack1 I hate prediction markets not based on projections lol

opened a Ṁ50 YES at 2% order

Murkowski might switch

bought Ṁ50 YES

@Jack1 is anyone else considering this as a possibility

@Jack1 What if she goes Independent but caucuses with Dems? [edit: Per description, she'd count as Dem.]

I bet everything from 49-54, just for it to be around 55 :/
Gonna lose 1000 mana from this

This should be on the elections page.

And it should go up to 60

@robm I certainly agree but I have no power and can't even repost it to my followers any more because of Yap.

Somebody put it there! Thanks!

bought Ṁ100 NO

Bumping this again as the general inches closer!

Cumulative duplicate of this market

reposted

A lot has changed in the over 6 months since this market launched!

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