This market resolves to YES if the Democratic Party holds 56 or more seats in the senate of the United States Congress on February 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
Source of truth: The official composition (identity and partisan membership) published by the United States Congress (accessible via Congress.gov or official chamber directories at Senate.gov) as of February 1, 2027.
Caucusing members: In accordance with standard Congressional counting conventions, independent members who officially caucus with the Democratic Party (e.g., independent senators who organize with the Democratic caucus) are counted toward the Democratic seat total.
Timing & revisions: Partisan composition will be measured as of February 1, 2027. Any vacancies, special elections, or party switches occurring or officially recorded after February 1, 2027, will not be factored into resolution.
1,000Market was at 10% when I bet; I have it around 80%. Democrats look to be at 54 seats already. Alaska (Peltola) and Mississippi (Colom) would make 56, and Polymarket and Kalshi both have the Democrat around 90% in each. The risks are Alaska's ranked-choice count on Nov 18 and how close Mississippi is. https://polymarket.com/event/republican-senate-seats-after-the-midterms-low-brackets