This question resolves to the TIME 2026 Person of the Year. It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.
If you would like to add a new candidate or consolidated answer to the market, submit it in a comment below. If a comment gets enough support, I'll open the market to submissions so that you can add it, and you'll get a bonus.
Note that all consolidated answers must be mutually exclusive, so no more specific or general versions of existing options. The goal is to cleanly divide the probabilistic landscape into non-overlapping categories.
If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.
@Joshua credit for market idea.
there will be no ai clarifications added to this market's description
if you have a question, just ask in the comments :) !!!
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They’re gonna have the New Democrats or some nonsense like that aren’t they
@EladEvenShani when things are added, if you have a "yes other" position you get yes shares in the new position.
I confess I just find Mamdani implausible. Does anyone outside of the U.S. care about the marginal differences in NYC?
No obvious candidate tbh, given that it basically being AI last year makes it feel u likely they would double dip.
Seems likely they end up doing something weird like "the influencer" not sure what % Id put other at though.
Alright... who's ready for GRAY AREA RESOLUTION NIGHTARE.
@ryanmccomb have you thought about how these, for example, would resolve:
"The New Democratic Party" (Zohran Mamdani on one cover, James Talarico and Jon Ossoff staring at each other on the other cover)
"The AI Critics" (Pope Leo and Bernie Sanders both mentioned a bunch but also like 5 other people... the cover is abstract art)
"The Politician" (Zohran, Trump, Netanyahu, Carney all featured, as are 7 other people not listed in the market)
@ryanmccomb every year before the TIME announcement I ask @Joshua to litigate edge cases in advance and every year (jk just last year haha) I get extremely annoyed when the edge case happens and no one knows how to resolve it
@MachiNi I’m sorry but it’s ridiculous to bet on anyone or anything else at this point. This is the most POTY nomination ever. Case closed.