Resolves YES if the Democratic caucus in the United States senate has 60 seats or more before December 31 11.59pm ET 2029. This includes independents caucusing with Democrats.
1,000easiest path is
2026:
- flip NC1 (48)
- flip ME (49)
- flip TX (50)
- flip AK1 (51)
- flip IA1 (52)
- flip NE and Osborn caucuses with dems (53)
- flip SC (54)
- flip KS (55)
2028:
- flip NC2 (56)
- flip WI (57)
- flip OH (58)
- flip IA2 (59)
- flip AK2 (60)
FL is an alternate option in 2028 but i expect it to be less likely than any seat listed here
the 2026 outcome is already like 20% to happen, but flipping three R+10 seats (or holding in ohio's case) in a presidential cycle is borderline impossible. this should be <3% although it's not a good use of mana to bet it to that level
@Plant a lot more likely now, just need to hold OH, flip the two swing states, and flip one of IA/AK/FL. still requires a pretty massive wave in 2028 but such an outcome is no longer unimaginable considering what the 2026 environment was like
iowa is probably the most likely of the red state flips given grassley will either be running for re-election at age 157 or retiring. alaska's only on the table if murkowski retires. florida is florida, really hard to see it being left of iowa