Resolves YES if according to a consensus of credible reporting (at any point before EOY 2026), Pete Hegseth is no longer serving as Secretary of War. Resolves NO otherwise.
1,000People are also trading
@Fastcar99 he needs to actually leave (I understand this may not match eg Polymarket which often goes based on announcements, but I don’t want this to resolve based on an announcement that doesn’t happen)
Added a bit more NO. Market was ~57% when I bet; I've got it around 42%, close to Polymarket's much bigger book on the same question. The impeachment vote next week is real, but the Senate stays Republican until January, so he'd have to resign or be fired, and Trump backed him this week. https://polymarket.com/event/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-december-31
Market was 68% when I bet; I've got it ~48%. Polymarket's much bigger market on this is at 49-50%, and the jump here came from one large buy. Trump said Nov 4 he's doing a great job; the pressure (Massie's impeachment threat) is real, so a coin flip, not 68%. https://abcnews.com/Politics/trump-dismisses-prospect-replacing-hegseth-amid-iran-war/story?id=137852219